Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the OVER up to 260.5 (-108) after it opened @ 254.5 (-120).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 140.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Kirk Cousins has been among the top passers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 273.0 yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 4th-least yards in the league (just 204.0 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.06 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
320
Passing Yards