Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 214.5 (-120) after it opened @ 215.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 2nd-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 210.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in football against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year (68.0%).
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
219
Passing Yards
219
Passing Yards
