NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Falcons vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 173.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 173.5 (-110) after it opened @ 177.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the most yards in the league (292.0 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
- The Atlanta Falcons linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.
- The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
- Justin Fields has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging 150.0 yards per game while grading out in the 9th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
196
Passing Yards
196
Passing Yards
