Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-108) after it opened @ 252.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 66.8% pass rate.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 37.9 throws per game this year, checking in at the 77th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- Joe Burrow has passed for a lot more yards per game (276.0) this season than he did last season (211.0).
Cons
- The Bengals are an enormous 7-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (65.9%).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 8th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
