Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jimmy Garoppolo from EV Insight

Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards

Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-115) after it opened @ 246.5 (-115).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Jimmy Garoppolo has passed for significantly more yards per game (246.0) this season than he did last season (207.0).
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a terrific 8.29 yards-per-target while ranking in the 94th percentile.

Cons

The 49ers are a big 10-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 32.5 passes in this game, on average: the least of all QBs.

Projection

THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards