Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 222.5 (-131) after it opened @ 229.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 36.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.94 seconds per snap.
- Derek Carr has thrown for substantially fewer yards per game (230.0) this year than he did last year (258.0).
- Derek Carr’s throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 61.5%.
- Opposing teams have passed for the least yards in the league (just 196.0 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the league versus the Denver Broncos defense this year (66.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
