Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 222.5 (-131) after it opened @ 229.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 36.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.94 seconds per snap.
Derek Carr has thrown for substantially fewer yards per game (230.0) this year than he did last year (258.0).
Derek Carr’s throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 61.5%.
Opposing teams have passed for the least yards in the league (just 196.0 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the league versus the Denver Broncos defense this year (66.6%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards