Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Andy Dalton from EV Insight

Andy DaltonPassing Yards

Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (+106/-145).

The public has bet the OVER up to 214.5 (+106) after it opened @ 212.5 (+100).

Pros

The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Andy Dalton has passed for significantly more yards per game (210.0) this season than he did last season (183.0).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has afforded their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 30.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, allowing 7.14 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks profile as the 8th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
212
Passing Yards