Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Andy DaltonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Saints vs. Rams
Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the OVER up to 214.5 (+106) after it opened @ 212.5 (+100).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Andy Dalton has passed for significantly more yards per game (210.0) this season than he did last season (183.0).
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line has afforded their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 30.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, allowing 7.14 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks profile as the 8th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
212
Passing Yards
212
Passing Yards
