Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 237.5 (-110) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have passed for the most yards in the NFL (304.0 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in football versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year (74.0%).
The Tennessee Titans pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Cons

The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 32.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
Aaron Rodgers’s passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.6% to 66.7%.
Aaron Rodgers’s passing effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging a measly 7.10 yards-per-target compared to a 8.15 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
235
Passing Yards