MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Offenses continue to struggle to generate momentum during the 2023 season. That (and a slew of injuries) has led to many frustrating fantasy weeks for fantasy managers. The injury bug continued to bite in Week 11, with big names like Joe Burrow and Mark Andrews being lost for the season. And that was just on Thursday.
Still, we were able to learn plenty of information that can help down the stretch of the fantasy season and into the fantasy playoffs. Players are seeing their roles change at this point in the season, as NFL teams either push for players who can contribute this year or audition players who can have an expanded role next season.
Check out Week 11’s risers and fallers below to see who to target (or avoid) in fantasy going forward.
Risers
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Many expected Trevor Lawrence to cement himself in the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL after a strong 2022 season. However, the third-year quarterback was largely disappointing in the first 10 games of the NFL season. In Week 11, Lawrence showed that he could hit the lofty ceiling that we all imagined for him before the 2023 season.
Lawrence completed 24-of-32 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns while adding five carries for 17 yards and two rushing scores. It was an efficient game for the quarterback, although it was against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this season. More importantly, this was an important building block for a Jaguars offense that needs to stay sharp with Houston at their heels for the AFC South title.
The Jaguars have some great matchups down the stretch of the season (and the fantasy playoffs), against the Texans, Bengals, Buccaneers and Panthers in four of the next six games. Unfortunately, there will also be challenges with back-to-back matchups against the Browns and Ravens in Weeks 14 and 15.
If Lawrence is on his game, he could quickly become a league-winning quarterback in the fantasy playoffs.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been utilizing Jaylen Warren more in their offense to try to spark more explosive plays in the running game. Coming into Week 11, FTN’s expected fantasy points tool showed that Warren had vastly outperformed his expectations while Najee Harris continued to struggle to generate explosive plays despite his volume.
In Week 11, Warren was out-snapped by Harris once again. Despite the lack of work, he still flashed out of the backfield, racking up 129 yards and a touchdown on nine carries while adding three receptions for 16 yards. Conversely, Harris totaled just 35 yards on 12 carries and one reception for one yard.
The Steelers will continue to lean on both backs, but games like this should lead to Warren earning more snaps the following week. We are at a point where Warren can be started as a flex option weekly and even an RB2 depending on bye weeks.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
The start of Jameson Williams’ career has been a roller coaster. The wide receiver missed most of his rookie year due to a torn ACL suffered in college but ran wind sprints for the Lions down the stretch of the 2022 regular season. He was then suspended to start the 2023 season due to gambling and struggled to catch the ball when targeted.
However, things are starting to stabilize for the young wide receiver in recent weeks. Williams has steadily seen his playing time increase week-by-week for the Detroit Lions after logging a season-low 25% snap share in Week 6. The second-year receiver logged a career-high 64% snap share in Week 11 against the Bears, catching two of his three targets for 44 yards and a touchdown. Williams has nearly closed the gap with veteran receiver Josh Reynolds in snaps (Reynolds led 45-40 this week) and routes run (27-25 in favor of Reynolds).
The Lions invested heavily in Williams coming out of college, and his speed can push this passing attack to a new level. It seems like the team is starting to trust him with more of the offense, which should lead to some big games down the stretch.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are starting to find creative ways to get rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed the football. Over the last two weeks, Reed has caught 9-of-11 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown while adding three carries for 46 yards and a touchdown (all in Week 11). The Packers aren’t getting the explosive plays they hoped for from Christian Watson, which has led Reed to emerge as the best big-play threat in Green Bay.
Additionally, in Week 11, Reed finished tied for second with Romeo Doubs in snaps played (50), second on the team in routes run (34) and tied for second with Dontayvion Wicks in targets (5). He also led the team in rushing with 46 yards. Expect the Packers to continue to find ways to get the rookie the ball as they work to get experience for their young position players.
Tommy Tremble, TE, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have spent the season rotating through their tight end position, but recently, 2021 third-round pick Tommy Tremble has emerged as the primary option at the position. Tremble led the tight end position in snaps (45) and routes run (26). The increased playing time led to a role in the passing attack with the tight end finishing third on the team in targets (3) behind Adam Thielen (11) and Jonathan Mingo (5).
The Panthers passing attack isn’t great, but Tremble is a big option who caught one of his three targets for Carolina’s only touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys. Tremble is a solid athlete at the tight end position and could see plenty of check-down opportunities as teams focus their energy on shutting down Thielen at wide receiver.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews’ season-ending ankle injury has once again opened up an opportunity for Isaiah Likely to emerge as a fantasy-relevant tight end. Likely played on 49 of the Ravens’ offensive snaps after Andrews’ injury and very rarely came off the field. He earned just two targets and didn’t convert either of them into receptions.
Likely flashed at times during his rookie season (36 receptions for 373 yards and three touchdowns), but this is a Ravens offense that has four legitimate receiving options (shoutout to Nelson Agholor) at wide receiver to compete with for targets. Likely will be on the field and is a fantastic athlete, so he is worth a significant FAAB or waiver bid going forward, but it is difficult to see him having the same impact on offense as last season with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham finally finding their stride this season.
Fallers
Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets
It didn’t seem like Zach Wilson could find a way to fall much lower during the Jets’ offensive woes, but he found a way to outdo himself against a very average Buffalo defense. Wilson completed 7-of-15 passes (none of them to wide receivers) for 81 yards and a touchdown with one interception against the Bills. Even worse, the Jets elected to pull Wilson in the second half for Tim Boyle, which is a scathing indictment of where the team is with the third-year quarterback.
There have been high points for Wilson this season, but he is largely the same quarterback he has always been. Unfortunately for Wilson, that isn’t enough to stay on the field for a team that came into the season with Super Bowl aspirations. It’s hard to imagine the team will give him more opportunities to lead the offense.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Fantasy managers couldn’t wait to get De’Von Achane back into their lineups after the Dolphins activated the rookie running back off injured reserve. Achane exploded onto the fantasy scene from Weeks 3-5, amassing 37 carries for 455 yards (12.3 yards per carry) and five touchdowns while adding eight receptions on 10 targets for 63 yards and two receiving scores. The rookie stood out in terms of fantasy production on an offense that features fantasy outliers.
Unfortunately, his return lasted just two touches against the Raiders before another knee issue held him out of the remainder of the game. The good news is that head coach Mike McDaniel stated that Achane’s exclusion from the game was largely precautionary. The bad news is that the team understands what Achane brings to the team and will handle him carefully to have him in top shape before the NFL playoffs.
Achane will certainly have big games down the stretch of the fantasy season. But expect the team to be extra cautious with their explosive (and very small) speed running back for the rest of the year.
Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are moving away from Michael Gallup on offense. Since Week 5, Gallup has seen a steady decline in his snap share for the Cowboys, leading to a season-low 34% snap share in Week 11. The veteran receiver played on five fewer snaps than second-year receiver Jalen Tolbert and finished tied for third among receivers in targets (4). Gallup did catch three of his targets for 34 yards, but he’s purely a rotational receiver with Brandin Cooks taking over the outside receiver role opposite of CeeDee Lamb in two receiver sets.
Given his role as a part-time rotational receiver, it will be hard to trust Gallup in fantasy unless the Cowboys are forced into a competitive game.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans
The wave of hope for an expanded role for Chigoziem Okonkwo in the preseason died considerably when the team signed DeAndre Hopkins as the complement to Treylon Burks. That hope was renewed with Burks’ continued struggles to stay on the field. At this point, that hope should be extinguished.
Okonkwo finished behind rookie fifth-round tight end Josh Wylie in snaps in Week 11. The veteran tight end still has a prominent role in Tennessee’s three-receiver personnel, but that role equated to eight routes run and just two targets against the Jaguars. Okonkwo had his fewest targets (2), receptions (1) and receiving yards (6) since Week 1. He doesn’t have a single game with more than 40 yards this season and has yet to find the end zone.
The loss of Burks isn’t equating to added production or playing time for Okonkwo (despite his superior athleticism), which makes him droppable in all formats.
The Bengals passing attack
The Joe Burrow season-ending injury on Thursday night will have a significant impact on all of Cincinnati’s passing weapons. The Bengals turned to Jake Browning against the Ravens in Week 11 after Burrow was knocked out of the game in the first quarter. Browning was efficient running the offense (8-of-14 for 68 yards and one touchdown) but struggled to elevate any of the team’s receiving weapons.
There will certainly be big weeks for Ja’Marr Chase (ignore his two receptions for 12 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore) as he gets targets funneled his way by an inexperienced quarterback, but it is hard to imagine that Browning will be able to keep this entire passing attack afloat. That is bad news for fantasy managers who invested early-round draft capital into this offense during their summer drafts.
