Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to notch 18.0 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (71.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (49.8% in games he has played).
Travis Etienne has grinded out 76.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (93rd percentile).
Travis Etienne’s rushing effectiveness (5.68 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (93rd percentile among running backs).

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in football (just 104 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards