Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-142) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to notch 12.2 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most yards in the NFL (140 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
- The Seattle Seahawks defensive ends grade out as the 8th-worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 32.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be much less involved in his offense’s run game this week (53.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (72.7% in games he has played).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
- Leonard Fournette has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
