Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Dolphins vs. Browns
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-130) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Jeffery Wilson has been a more important option in his team’s rushing attack this season (46.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (27.9%).
- Jeffery Wilson has run for a lot more yards per game (60.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
- Jeffery Wilson’s ground efficiency has gotten a boost this season, averaging 5.34 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.77 mark last season.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.06 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 38.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards
45
Rushing Yards
