Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Rams vs. Cardinals
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects James Conner to total 12.7 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among running backs.
- James Conner has received 44.7% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
- The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup quarterback Colt McCoy in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- James Conner has run for a lot fewer yards per game (42.0) this year than he did last year (53.0).
- The Los Angeles Rams defense boasts the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up just 4.13 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
