Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Vikings
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-125) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to accumulate 12.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among RBs.
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 30.2% run rate.
- Devin Singletary has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this season, staying on the field for 70.9% of snaps compared to just 57.9% last season.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 4.17 yards-per-carry.
- The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles rank as the best collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
