Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 99.5 (-110) after it opened @ 106.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 26.4 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has earned 83.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has grinded out 109.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (100th percentile).
The Denver Broncos defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.19 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
116
Rushing Yards