WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Titans vs. Broncos
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 99.5 (-110) after it opened @ 106.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 26.4 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
- Derrick Henry has earned 83.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- Derrick Henry has grinded out 109.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (100th percentile).
- The Denver Broncos defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.19 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
116
Rushing Yards
116
Rushing Yards
