Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dameon Pierce from EV Insight

Dameon PierceRushing Yards

Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 85.5 (-105) after it opened @ 77.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to garner 21.9 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Dameon Pierce has earned 83.9% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has generated 84.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (96th percentile).
Dameon Pierce has been among the best RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a terrific 3.80 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 88th percentile.
The New York Giants defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering 5.25 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a giant 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
103
Rushing Yards