Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Giants vs. Texans
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 85.5 (-105) after it opened @ 77.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to garner 21.9 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- Dameon Pierce has earned 83.9% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- Dameon Pierce has generated 84.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (96th percentile).
- Dameon Pierce has been among the best RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a terrific 3.80 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 88th percentile.
- The New York Giants defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering 5.25 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a giant 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
- The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
103
Rushing Yards
103
Rushing Yards
