Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Panthers vs. Falcons
Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-130) after it opened @ 51.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Cordarrelle Patterson to total 14.0 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has garnered 47.9% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has rushed for significantly more yards per game (79.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-most yards in the league (145 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best DT corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
- The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
