Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 94.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 94.5 (-115) after it opened @ 90.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 12.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill has been a more important option in his offense’s pass attack this year (32.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (26.6%).
Tyreek Hill has accumulated substantially more receiving yards per game (111.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).

Cons

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
110
Receiving Yards