NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Rams vs. Cardinals
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-114) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be starting backup QB John Wolford in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- Tyler Higbee has accrued quite a few more receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
Cons
- The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Tyler Higbee has run fewer routes this year (73.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (84.5%).
- Tyler Higbee has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (30.0 per game).
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
