Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 82.5 (-131) after it opened @ 77.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 61.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 10.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has notched significantly more receiving yards per game (92.0) this season than he did last season (59.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (64.5%) versus TEs this year (64.5%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards