NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 82.5 (-131) after it opened @ 77.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 61.9 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 10.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- Travis Kelce has notched significantly more receiving yards per game (92.0) this season than he did last season (59.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (64.5%) versus TEs this year (64.5%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards
87
Receiving Yards
