Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tommy Tremble from EV Insight

Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards

Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 11.5 yards (-115/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 11.5 (-105) after it opened @ 12.5 (-120).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling with backup QB PJ Walker this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Tommy Tremble has posted a whopping 22.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among tight ends.
The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (70.0) to tight ends this year.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game.
Tommy Tremble’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 62.0% to 57.1%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards