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Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tommy Tremble from EV Insight

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Tommy Tremble

Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 10

Panthers vs. Falcons

Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 11.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 11.5 (-105) after it opened @ 12.5 (-120).

Pros

  • The Carolina Panthers will be rolling with backup QB PJ Walker this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
  • Tommy Tremble has posted a whopping 22.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among tight ends.
  • The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (70.0) to tight ends this year.
Cons

  • The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game.
  • Tommy Tremble’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 62.0% to 57.1%.

Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards

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