Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Panthers vs. Falcons
Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 11.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 11.5 (-105) after it opened @ 12.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling with backup QB PJ Walker this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- Tommy Tremble has posted a whopping 22.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among tight ends.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (70.0) to tight ends this year.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game.
- Tommy Tremble’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 62.0% to 57.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
