Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (+105) after it opened @ 38.5 (-120).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 7.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
T.J. Hockenson’s 39.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 69.6%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards