Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Tonyan from EV Insight

Robert TonyanReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-105) after it opened @ 27.5 (-110).

Pros

The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to total 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among TEs.

Cons

Robert Tonyan’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling just 7.32 yards-per-target vs a 8.76 figure last season.
Robert Tonyan’s skills in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this season, averaging a mere 4.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.78 rate last season.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. tight ends this year, allowing 5.54 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the league.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards