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Chris Meaney
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Packers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-105) after it opened @ 27.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to total 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- Robert Tonyan’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling just 7.32 yards-per-target vs a 8.76 figure last season.
- Robert Tonyan’s skills in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this season, averaging a mere 4.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.78 rate last season.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. tight ends this year, allowing 5.54 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the league.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
