Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Panthers vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
- Kyle Pitts has been a more integral piece of his offense’s pass attack this year (25.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (20.0%).
- Kyle Pitts has put up a whopping 76.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among tight ends.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (82.9%) vs. TEs this year (82.9%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
- Kyle Pitts has accrued many fewer receiving yards per game (37.0) this season than he did last season (54.0).
- Kyle Pitts’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 52.9%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
