Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jerry JeudyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Titans vs. Broncos
Right now, Jerry Jeudy’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
- Jerry Jeudy has been less involved as a potential target this year (89.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (77.4%).
- THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to accrue 7.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
- Jerry Jeudy has posted far more air yards this season (91.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Jerry Jeudy’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.0% to 56.5%.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 8th-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
