Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Harrison BryantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Dolphins vs. Browns
Right now, Harrison Bryant’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.4 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Harrison Bryant has gone out for fewer passes this season (45.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (28.0%).
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in football (84.2%) versus TEs this year (84.2%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Harrison Bryant’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 77.5% to 67.5%.
- Harrison Bryant’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, totaling a measly 5.29 yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 rate last season.
- Harrison Bryant has been among the worst tight ends in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 17th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
