Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Greg DulcichReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Titans vs. Broncos
Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-130) after it opened @ 39.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
- The Tennessee Titans defense has conceded the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (66.0) to tight ends this year.
- The Tennessee Titans pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. TEs this year, conceding 8.54 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in football.
- The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 8th-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
