Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Foster Moreau from EV Insight

Foster MoreauReceiving Yards

Right now, Foster Moreau’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-113/-121).

The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (-113) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to accumulate 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Foster Moreau has compiled a colossal 22.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among tight ends.
Foster Moreau’s 22.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 15.7.

Cons

The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Foster Moreau’s pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging just 7.01 yards-per-target compared to a 8.50 mark last year.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards