Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-118/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-120).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to garner 4.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has given up the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the league (60.0) versus TEs this year.

Cons

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential target this season (68.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
Dawson Knox has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
Dawson Knox has accumulated substantially fewer receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards