Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Vikings
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-118/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.8% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to garner 4.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has given up the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the league (60.0) versus TEs this year.
Cons
- The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential target this season (68.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
- Dawson Knox has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
- Dawson Knox has accumulated substantially fewer receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
