WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-133) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- Darnell Mooney has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 28.2% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- Darnell Mooney’s possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.7% to 67.0%.
- Darnell Mooney’s skills in picking up extra yardage have improved this season, totaling 7.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.28 figure last season.
- The Detroit Lions defense has given up the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (177.0) versus WRs this year.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
