Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Panthers vs. Falcons
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling with backup QB PJ Walker this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to garner 8.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- D.J. Moore’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, compiling 5.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.04 figure last season.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game.
- D.J. Moore has been a more important option in his team’s offense this season, staying in the game for 97.3% of snaps vs just 87.1% last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
