Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (+115/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-145) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- Cole Kmet’s possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 75.4%.
- Cole Kmet’s receiving effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 8.18 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.95 figure last season.
- Cole Kmet’s ability to pick up extra yardage has been refined this season, accumulating 6.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 3.97 mark last season.
- The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (65.0) versus TEs this year.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
