Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Jaguars are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Christian Kirk has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
- Christian Kirk’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 64.8%.
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 10th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
