Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Cons

Christian Kirk has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
Christian Kirk’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 64.8%.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 10th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards