Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-135) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.1 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to notch 9.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
- Chris Godwin has notched far fewer air yards this season (60.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
- Chris Godwin has accrued quite a few less receiving yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (87.0).
- Chris Godwin’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 79.5% to 68.3%.
- Chris Godwin’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, compiling just 6.93 yards-per-target compared to a 9.87 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
