WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Packers vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to accumulate 9.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
- CeeDee Lamb has been a more integral piece of his offense’s air attack this season (31.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (20.3%).
- CeeDee Lamb has posted quite a few more air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).
- CeeDee Lamb has been among the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 68.0 yards per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a heavy 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Cowboys have been the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 56.1% pass rate.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
- CeeDee Lamb’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 59.7%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
