Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brock WrightReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Brock Wright’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-135) after it opened @ 17.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 37.0) versus TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards
17
Receiving Yards
