Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 10.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the game this year, averaging a terrific 57.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, averaging 7.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 3.24 rate last year.
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Completion% in football (70.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (70.6%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been used less as a potential target this season (72.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (83.0%).
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
