Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 257.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 257.5 (-115) after it opened @ 248.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Jaguars are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- Trevor Lawrence’s passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 58.9% to 63.7%.
Cons
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 10th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards
251
Passing Yards
