Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Ryan TannehillPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Titans vs. Broncos
Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 174.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 174.5 (-129) after it opened @ 175.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Ryan Tannehill to attempt 30.5 passes this week, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
- The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
199
Passing Yards
199
Passing Yards
