Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 230.5 (-105) after it opened @ 226.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Opposing offenses have passed for the most yards in football (306.0 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year (75.8%).
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 56.9%.
The Tennessee Titans defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.67 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 8th-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
234
Passing Yards