Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Titans vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 230.5 (-105) after it opened @ 226.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the most yards in football (306.0 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year (75.8%).
- The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 56.9%.
- The Tennessee Titans defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.67 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 8th-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
234
Passing Yards
234
Passing Yards
