WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 300.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 300.5 (-110) after it opened @ 302.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 61.9 plays per game.
- Patrick Mahomes has thrown for many more yards per game (354.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).
- Opposing teams have passed for the 9th-most yards in football (250.0 per game) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest clip in the league against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.8%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
318
Passing Yards
318
Passing Yards
