Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Vikings
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 246.5 (-114) after it opened @ 243.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Kirk Cousins has been among the top passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 256.0 yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, yielding 7.17 yards-per-target: the 8th-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.54 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
