Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Saints
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 215.5 (-133) after it opened @ 223.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
- The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 202.0 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year (64.6%).
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.89 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards
202
Passing Yards
