Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kenny Pickett from EV Insight

Kenny PickettPassing Yards

Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 215.5 (-133) after it opened @ 223.5 (-115).

Pros

The Steelers rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Cons

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 202.0 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year (64.6%).
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.89 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards