Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-105) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 37.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the league vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (72.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Derek Carr has passed for many fewer yards per game (229.0) this season than he did last season (258.0).
Derek Carr’s passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 61.4%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
292
Passing Yards