Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Colts
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-105) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 37.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the league vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (72.9%).
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Derek Carr has passed for many fewer yards per game (229.0) this season than he did last season (258.0).
- Derek Carr’s passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 61.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
292
Passing Yards
292
Passing Yards
