Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Daniel JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Giants vs. Texans
Right now, Daniel Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 187.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 187.5 (-120) after it opened @ 188.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.20 seconds per snap.
- The Houston Texans defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the league.
- The Houston Texans safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 30.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Daniel Jones has passed for significantly fewer yards per game (182.0) this season than he did last season (218.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
198
Passing Yards
198
Passing Yards
