Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Packers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-137) after it opened @ 237.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Dak Prescott has been among the leading passers in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 260.0 yards per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.
- The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Dallas Cowboys O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a heavy 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Cowboys have been the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 56.1% pass rate.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
- Dak Prescott’s passing accuracy has declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 68.4% to 63.0%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards
245
Passing Yards
