Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Andy DaltonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Saints
Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 214.5 (-142) after it opened @ 226.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
- Andy Dalton has passed for substantially more yards per game (212.0) this season than he did last season (183.0).
- Opposing teams have passed for the 2nd-most yards in football (285.0 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency this year, surrendering 8.25 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 25.5 passes this week, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.2%).
- The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
156
Passing Yards
156
Passing Yards
