Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Packers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-125) after it opened @ 235.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 38.6 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Cons
- Aaron Rodgers’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.6% to 66.3%.
- Aaron Rodgers’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 6.91 yards-per-target compared to a 8.15 rate last season.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 200.0 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, conceding 6.64 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in football.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards
252
Passing Yards
