Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to garner 12.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-least run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.9% run rate.
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends project as the 4th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards