Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Giants vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Tony Pollard has picked up 57.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (78th percentile).
- The New York Giants defense has produced the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding 5.37 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants defensive tackles project as the 4th-best group of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
94
Rushing Yards
94
Rushing Yards
